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In football, the bookmaker introduces a point-spread in an attempt to make each bet a fair bet. A point-spread of 3.5 points in favor of team A means that if you bet on team A you win if A wins by more than 3 points and otherwise you lose. Bettors are given odds of 10:11 on their bets to provide a profit for the bookies. The point-spread changes as the betting proceeds because the bookmakers want to make the amount bet on each team about the same to avoid unexpected losses. As Hal remarks, loser's bets pay the winners and everyone pays the bookmaker. The point-spread ends up reflecting a consensus of the public's subjective probabilities for the outcomes of the games.
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To see if these subjective probabilities are reasonable, it is sufficient to see if the point-spreads are consistent with data. Hal looked at this problem in an earlier publication: "On the probability of winning a football game," The American Statistician, 45, 179-183. He found that the difference between the point-spread and the outcome of the games to be approximately normally distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation 13.5 again showing that the player's subjective probabilities are consistent with the data.
An economic professor at Dartmouth used this idea in one of our chance courses. He asked all members of the class to make their choices on ten games and also answer three questions aimed at indicating their knowledge of football. He then reported back on the results showing that those with a knowledge of football did not do significantly better than the others, and the class as a whole did not do significantly better than if they had just tossed coins to make their decisions.
The newspaper articles that we review are usually based on articles from one of the most popular science and medical journals. These include the science journals: Science, Nature, Science News, New Scientists and the medical journals: New England Journal of Medicine, Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA), Lancet, and British Journal of Medicine. All of these have some kind of web versions. For most of these, you or your library must have a regular subscription to be able to view and download full text of articles. We will provide at the end of this discussion more details on what is available for these electronic journals.
Today's paper is free. Archives include the past 365 days. You can search for an article but if you want to download it you have to pay $2.50. Of course, the Tuesday Science Times is a particularly valuable source for Chance News articles.
You can freely access table of contents of current issues and back issues of "Nature" back to June 1997. Subscribers of "Nature" can have access to search and full text. Nature does not yet have a library policy but they are experimenting with a number of schools including Dartmouth so you can access the eletronic version of Nature through a librarian.
You can register free to obtain table of context and selected full text of articles in Lancet back to 6 Dec. 1997. Subscribers of Lancet can obtain full text of articles back to this date. Libraries that subscribe to Lancet can activate online subscriptions on behalf of their users. They can register as many users as they wish, but only three users per subscription can have simultaneous access to The Lancet Interactive. 2ff7e9595c
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